Markov Chains
If we have a system with N states and for each state, a set of N probabilities from transitioning from that state to another state (including itself) we end up with an matrix where the entry represents the probability of transitioning from state to state .
Starting with some state, we can transition to another state, then another, with the probability of picking the next state dependent only on the existing state and the matrix We call this sequence of random events a Markov Chain.
More formally, the sequence or random variables is called a Markov Chain if
We write
and note that
and
for We call the values the transition probabilities of the Markov chain.
Alternatively, we can say the sequence or random variables is said to form a Markov Chain (denoted ) if and only if and are conditionally independent given Specifically, and form a Markov Chain if the joint probability mass function can be written as
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Note that is the probability of going from state to state in one step. We use the notation
to represent the probability of going from state to state in steps.
Due to the magic of linear algebra, if we have a row vector representing the probability of starting in each state, we can compute the probability of ending up in any given state after steps as
Ergodic Markov Chains
If for some positive integer we have that for all then the Markov chain is said to be ergodic.
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When the markov chain is ergodic, the limit
exists and
Here, and the entries in it represent the long term probabilities of being in any given state, or equivalently, the portion of time spent in any given state.
Note that which when combined with the fact that the entries of sum to 1 lets us solve a linear system of equations to find the entries of
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A vector whose entries are non-negative and sum to 1 is called a probability vector.
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The set of probability vectors in is a convex set, and it is compact.
Let be the set of probability vectors in That is,
(Note: is a dimensional @simplex).
Suppose Then
.
Then, let Now,
Since either or are non-negative, all entries of this convex combination are non-negative, so the combination is again in and is therefore a probability vector.
We can use Heine-Borel to show that is compact by showing it is closed and bounded.
Noe that for each and each @coordinate
is a closed half-space. Now, note that the map
is continuous, the pre-image of under is
Because is closed in by A mapping of a metric space... we have that
is closed
Now,
is an intersection of closed sets, which is also closed.
is obviously bounded - the sum of all coordinates in is always so the closed ball of radius centered at the origin.
Therefore, is closed and bounded, and is compact.
TODO: we can generalize this to the fact that @simplexes are convex and compact.
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A stochastic matrix (actually, a right stochastic matrix) is a @square-matrix with non-negative entries whose rows each sum to one:
Equivalently, with entrywise, where is the all-ones vector.
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A left stochastic matrix is a @square-matrix with non-negative entries whose columns each sum to one: Equivalently, with entrywise, where is the all-ones vector.
A stochastic matrix can be used to describe the transitions of a markov chain.
If a matrix is both a row stochastic matrix and a column stochastic matrix, it is said to be a doubly stochastic matrix. That is, both its rows and its columns sum to 1.
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A doubly stochastic matrix is a convex combination of @permutation-matrices.
A stochastic matrix maps a probability vector to another probability vector — but only for the matching multiplication convention. A row stochastic matrix preserves the sum acting on the right, ; a column stochastic matrix preserves it acting on the left, ; and a doubly stochastic matrix preserves it either way. The demo below lets you apply each type to a probability vector, build doubly-stochastic matrices as convex combinations of permutation matrices, and iterate the map toward its stationary distribution.