Probability Basics
Sample Space
The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is called the sample space and is represented by the symbol . Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or member of the sample space or simply a sample point.
Referenced by (2 direct, 54 transitive)
Direct references:
Transitive (depth 1):
- A/B Test
- Continuous Random Variable
- Discrete Random Variable
- Entropy
- Expected Value
- Normal Distribution
- remark-14
- Self-Information
- Standard Normal Distribution
- theorem-15
- theorem-18
- Variance
Transitive (depth 2):
- Cross-Entropy
- Entropy Rate
- Gibbs' Inequality
- Chain rule for joint entropy
- joint-entropy-is-less-than-or-equal-to-entropy-of-parts
- KL Divergence
- note-33
- note-8
- proof-of-joint-entropy-is-less-than-or-equal-to-entropy-of-parts
- proof-of-theorem-18
- proof-of-theorem-29
- theorem-12
- Weak Asymptotic Equipartition Property
- theorem-29-intuition
- Noiseless channel transmitting discrete symbols
- markov-inequality-fish
- proof-of-markovs-inequality
- proof-of-theorem-2
- Sum of Independent Normal Random Variables
- note-23
- remark-8
- Binomial Distribution
- chebyshevs-inequality-note
- Confidence Interval for a Mean, Known Variance
- Confidence Interval for a Mean, Unknown Variance
- Geometric Distribution
- Hypergeometric Distribution
- Poisson Distribution
- Standard Deviation
- Uniform Distribution
- variance-interpretation
Transitive (depth 3):
- Normal Approximation to the Binomial
- Poisson Approximation to the Binomial
- Model Training
- Strong Asymptotic Equipartition Property (Shannon--McMillan--Breiman)
- Negative Binomial Distribution
- proof-of-theorem-36
- remark-26
- Sum of Independent Poisson Random Variables
- Chebyshev's Inequality
Transitive (depth 4):
For example, the sample space representing the outcomes of the rolls of a standard six-sided die is
An event is a subset of a sample space. For example, we can say the event that the roll of a die is odd is the event that the roll of a die is even is , and that the event that the roll of a die is less than or equal to 4 is
A lot of the rest of basic probability is just set theory from there:
- The event that the roll of a die is not less than or equal to 4 is the complement of , written as .
- The event that the roll is both even and less than or equal to 4 is the intersection of and , written as
- The event that the roll is either even or less than or equal to 4 is the union of and , written as
We can also have continuous sample spaces. For example, if we were to randomly choose a number between 0 and 1 inclusive, the sample space would be , and the event that the outcome is a number whose decimal digits are only 2s would be
Probability
Note: This applies to sample spaces of discrete events and is a bit hand wavy.
We can assign a probability or weight to each sample point in a sample space by giving it a value ranging from 0 to 1. Events that are more likely to occur have a probability closer to 1, and events that are less likely to occur have a probability closer to 0. We give a probability to all sample points in a sample space such that the sum of the probabilities of all sample points in a sample space is 1.
Then, the probability of an event is the sum of the probabilities of all sample points in Therefore,
Referenced by (1 direct)
Direct references:
Probability Rules
The probability of or is the probability of plus the probability of minus the probability of and occurring together:
If and are mutually exclusive events,
We have to subtract the overlap between and to avoid double counting.
Similarly
The probability of and is the probability of times the probability of given , or equivalently, the probability of times the probability of given .
If and are independent, this reduces to .
From this, we can give the formula for conditional probability. The probability of given is
That is to say, the probability of occurring given has occurred is the portion of times occurs that also occurs.
If , then and are independent events, and